GBT 41165-2021《海洋预报结果准确性检验评估方法》风暴潮部分研制方法

摘要：

风暴潮警报涉及要素较多，检验评估有一定困难性，本文详述了GB/T 41165-2021《海洋预报结果准确性检验评估方法》风暴潮部分的制定过程。研制过程中基于风暴潮警报调研和历史灾情分类研究，设计了风暴潮警报质量的量化评价方式，并应用东海区警报结果和实况数据反复测试和验证，结合多轮意见征求与试用成果，修正了潮时和潮位评估的阈值，撤消了过程整体评分的固定模式，分别建立了警报等级、潮时和潮位的检验评估算法，首次为海洋预报机构风暴潮警报评价提供了统一量化检验评估标准。  

Abstract:

There are many elements involved in storm surge alarm, which makes testing and evaluation difficult. The development process of the storm surge section of the GB/T 41165-2021, Accuracy evaluation methods of marine forecast results, is detailed in this paper. The quantitative evaluation method for storm surge alarm quality was designed based on storm surge alarm research and historical disaster classification studies, and repeatedly tested and verified by applying historical alarms and data from the East China Sea, combined with the feedback and trial results, the thresholds of tide time and tide level evaluation are revised, as well as the fixed model of overall process scoring was withdrawn, thus the test and evaluation algorithms of alarm level, tide time and tide level were established respectively, which provides a unified quantitative test assessment standard for the evaluation of storm surge alarms by marine forecasting agencies for the first time.

基金项目：本文系全国海洋标准化技术委员会推荐性标准制修订计划（项目编号：20140698-T-418）研究成果。 

作者简介：徐婷婷，综合预报室副主任，工程师，学士，主要从事风暴潮预警技术研究。邓小东，通信作者，预报中心副主任，高级工程师，硕士，主要从事预警报管理工作。